The Denver Nuggets’ starting lineup is arguably the most balanced and loaded with elite players of any NBA team. 

According to Cleaning the Glass, the combination of Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has averaged +13.1 points per 100 possessions this season during 1831 non-garbage time possessions. That’s precisely the kind of sign that a championship lineup should have.

As this squad prepares for the postseason, their bench is the one area that needs improvement. As of this now, none of their bench players who have played more than 200 minutes this season without fouling out have a positive point differential.

Denver faced a similar issue the previous year. To reduce the number of bench players they had to deploy to three (Christian Braun, Jeff Green, and Bruce Brown), they decided to combine their rotation.

The problem here is that the team did not make any trades by the deadline to replace Green and Brown, two of those guys who are no longer with the team.

This brings us to the main query of the piece: do the Nuggets currently have enough players on their roster to field a three-man bench that will enable them to win the NBA championship again?

What Was Added by Their Bench?

We must first ascertain what this year’s bench is trying to replace before we can respond to that query.

Brown was the group’s main performer. He was an all-around versatile defender. Above average in almost every aspect on that side of the ball, but not exceptional in any one defensive talent. With his pace-pushing (77th percentile in transition possessions per game in 2022–23, per NBA.com) and secondary on-ball creation, Brown, the offensive king of spunk, helped spark Denver’s attack.

Green was the group’s wise leader. Green has played for 10 playoff teams, including the squad that made the run last year, and he has experienced some pivotal moments in pivotal games, most notably Game 7 of the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals. In addition to his knowledge, Green provided physicality, size (6’8 with a wingspan of 7’1), and play finishing (as a spot-up shooter, cutter, and roller).

Despite being a rookie the previous season, Braun conducted himself like an experienced pro. He was Denver’s go-to guy for managing some of their opponents’ most difficult matches. Braun limited Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler, and Mike Conley to a combined 16-for-41 (39%), per matchup data from NBA.com. Similar to Green, he also added physicality, play finishing (he demonstrated a cutting masterclass in Game 3 of the NBA Finals), and size (6’6 with a 6’6.5 wingspan).

Christian Braun

Let’s be clear about one thing. The Nuggets don’t have to buy new parts for the ones they lost. All they have to do is make up for the production that the three players lost overall; this is similar to the Oakland Athletics’ predicament in Moneyball.

The easiest player to replace will be Braun. You know, given that he is still a member of the squad! Braun has already demonstrated that his abilities will pay off in the postseason. But now that Green is out of the picture. Braun is going to have to exert considerably more physicality.

Braun is shorter and shorter than Peyton Watson (more on him in a moment), who stands at 6’7 with a wingspan of 7’0.5. Watson’s contested rebounding percentage, however, is only in the 39th percentile (as opposed to Braun’s 59th percentile contested rebounding %), suggesting that he prefers not to get his hands dirty as Braun does.

This was evident in Denver’s most recent game against the Minnesota Timberwolves. When they shared the floor, Braun had the task of keeping Anthony Edwards, a ferocious bull, in front of him, while Watson looked out for the smaller, shiftier Conley. Edwards was reduced to a goose egg on 0-for-3 shooting in the last frame after scoring 15 points on 4-for-6 shooting in the third.

Reggie Jackson

Reggie Jackson was a member of the squad the previous season as well, although he was limited to just 18 minutes of action during their 16-game run. At first glance, that appears concerning. If he could assist Denver, why wouldn’t they play him?

I have a sense that Brown was providing the Nuggets with the necessary secondary on-ball creation beforehand. Because little players are frequently targeted during the playoffs, they felt that adding another player whose best skill would be redundant (remember our lesson on redundancies).

The Nuggets now require Jackson’s backup plan. According to two metrics, Jackson’s playmaking skill (Box Creation) is in the 81st percentile and his passing ability (Passer Rating) is in the 80th percentile.

Jackson is capable of creating for himself. Despite shooting in the 79th and 85th percentiles, respectively, for unassisted midrange and 3-point attempts, he maintains strong midrange (43rd percentile) and 3-point (50th percentile) percentages, according to Dunks & Threes.

Jackson may step in as The Joker’s sidekick when Murray is on the bench. During their 1,012 minutes together this season, the Nuggets had a 120.0 offensive rating and a net rating of +7.2.

Peyton Watson

And lastly, Watson. Of the three, Watson is under the most pressure, particularly in light of the remarks made by Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth before the season began.

As Booth said to Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer, “Some of these teams were trying to get Bruce, trying to make it worth it; it’s like, just be careful what you wish for.” “Peyton is larger. He is more extended. He is more physically fit. He is a better guard. He makes a better pass. Although he lacks experience and is still developing as an offensive player, our squad is more in need of defense than offense.

Booth wasn’t entirely incorrect. Compared to previous year (74th percentile), Watson’s defensive efficiency this season (95th percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus) has outperformed Brown’s. And for good reason—he’s longer, more athletic, and a superior on-ball defender—all the attributes Booth said he possessed.

Watson isn’t a superior passer yet, in my opinion. However, the flashes he displayed are undoubtedly fascinating. It was also accurate for Booth to point out Watson’s inexperience and infraction. Thankfully, Jackson ought to be capable of managing those divisions.

In terms of rim protection, Watson does offer Denver something that no one else on their playoff bench did the previous season. Watson’s block rate is in the 93rd percentile, and this isn’t merely the result of pointless block-hunting. His influence is seen throughout the entire team. Denver’s opponent rim accuracy is in the 98th percentile when Watson is on the court.

The worries about Watson’s perimeter spacing—or rather, lack thereof—are the only thing preventing him from being a surefire postseason participant. Brown was making a decent 35.8% of his three-pointers last season. Watson is only making 29.3% of his triples this year. It is hoped that Jackson’s increased playing time will help close the deficit.

The Final Word

It’s usually not a good idea to place too much emphasis on a single regular season game. Denver’s previous game against the Timberwolves feels like an anomaly, though, as it was a late-season matchup between two clubs vying for the top seed in the Western Conference.

Braun (27:17), Jackson (20:20), and Watson (23:01) all recorded positive +/- totals in that postseason-lite outing; Braun was a +9, Jackson was a +3, and Watson was a +4. And they achieved those grades by carrying out all of the previously mentioned tasks.

They did not even need to sub in Gordon and Caldwell-Pope in the last minutes because Braun and Watson, in particular, were so strong in the fourth quarter (Braun a +7, Watson a +9).

Denver’s starting five is so good that their bench guys only have very specific responsibilities to play. It also appears like the trio of Braun, Jackson, and Watson has just enough horses in the stable to help give Denver a real chance to win the NBA back-to-back, though we won’t know for sure until we watch them play in a postseason series.