In the opening round of the 2024 NBA playoffs, the second-seeded Denver Nuggets (57-25) of the Western Conference will take on the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Lakers (47-35). This is a rematch of the Nuggets’ 2023 Western Conference Finals victory over the Lakers en route to the title game.

The Nuggets’ journey here

Only the multi-time champions were as dominant as Denver in the 2023 playoffs, winning 16 of their 20 games and claiming the franchise’s first NBA championship. Even though Jamal Murray missed an additional three months of the season due to hamstring and ankle problems, the Nuggets played their part in their title defense, maintaining a steady lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves at the top of the Western Conference.

Nikola Jokić is a helpful person who makes everything seem simple. In 34.6 minutes over 79 games, he averaged 26.4 points (on 58/36/82 shooting splits), 12.4 rebounds, and nine assists. Cleaning the Glass reports that he posted the league’s greatest on/off differential of +23.7 points per 100 possessions, excluding garbage time. During one of the most dominant four-year streaks in NBA history, Jokić is expected to earn a third MVP award.

This season, the Nuggets’ starting lineup played 1,923 more meaningful possessions than any other five-man unit in the league, winning each one by an overwhelming average of 13 points. The group of five includes Michael Porter Jr., a 6-foot-10 forward with a flame-throwing ability, Aaron Gordon, a human dunker, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a 3-and-D guard who looks like he was made for this exact position. They rank eighth as a team, but they play excellent defense and are an orchestra on offense.

In order to guarantee the top seed in the Western Conference heading into its last two games, Denver needed victories over the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies. After losing to Victor Wembanyama and company due to an uncommon crunch-time error, the Nuggets received a No. 2 seed, which does not really upset them.

How the Lakers arrived at this location

Re-signing Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, and Jarred Vanderbilt for a total of $189 million, the Lakers essentially brought back the team that surprised everyone by making it to the West finals before being swept by the Nuggets. They bought a motley crew of Gabe Vincent, Christian Wood, Taurean Prince, Jaxson Hayes, and Cam Reddish via salary cap exceptions. A bold swing for a third superstar was absent.

The Lakers raised a banner celebrating their accomplishments in December when they easily won the NBA’s first-ever in-season tournament championship. Even though the Lakers had recorded two play-in tournament berths and a 33-win season since winning the 2020 championship, perhaps this squad could actually flip a switch when it needed to.

However, the wheels came off once more. Even with LeBron James and Anthony Davis having successful All-Star seasons, they were a sub-.500 team at the end of January. Due to his rotations, head coach Darvin Ham appeared to be under fire from the players, and then an odd incident occurred when they were traveling to another play-in game. The Lakers concluded the season with a 23-10 run after making the bold choice to start their more productive players, Hachimura and Reaves, over their less productive guys, Reddish and Prince.

With 11 victories in their last 14 games, the Lakers overcame the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings, securing this No. 7 seed with just a play-in victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday. The Pelicans were missing Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson during the latter stages of a close game.

Compare and contrast

Denver won the series 3-0 during the regular season.

The two teams faced off in three major games: the opening night, the trade deadline night, and the night James reached 40,000 points. The Lakers were left searching for solutions each time. In the first two encounters, the Nuggets never trailed and in the final two, they played without Caldwell-Pope, rolling to three wins by an average of ten points. The Lakers fans have been joking around the league for a while now that the 2023 Western Conference finals will be “The Closest Sweep in NBA History,” but this season should debunk any belief that these two teams are equal.

Jokić and Murray had an incredible performance against the Lakers, averaging a combined 54-17-18 on 53/43/79 shooting splits. Not too bad! With 21.3 points per game on 60.5% shooting against L.A., Porter was an X-factor.

Even James had to concede that Denver had Denver covered in the regular season and that “they have our number.”

Watchable matchup

Nikola Jokić vs. Anthony Davis

Being one of the league’s most athletic big men, Davis is expected to be in the top three for Defensive Player of the Year. Jokić continued to act as he liked. As the center of an offense that produced 124.6 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA tracking data, Jokić scored 31 points (on 13-for-25 shooting from the field) and had 16 assists in 22:24 against Davis. This is comparable to the greatest offensive performance in NBA history.

The Lakers attempted to stop Jokić from the high post with Hachimura, which would have freed up Davis to guard the rim. However, Denver’s superstar performed even better, scoring 35 points (16 of 23) and dishing out five assists for an offense that scored 132.7 points per 100 possessions in less than 12 minutes.

Jokić can’t be double-teamed because he will find the open man, and it doesn’t seem like he can be single-teamed either, so the Lakers will essentially have to hope that mythical stopper Anthony Davis can cause more disruption.

Davis may get worn out offensively as a result of that. Davis scored 17 points against the Nuggets on 6-for-17 shooting in the season opener, and he added four more points after halftime in their third encounter. The Lakers cannot afford for him to disappear due to an injury or lack of effort. Davis needs to give it his all on both fronts. He needs to reach his full potential because we had assumed for a while that he would become the greatest player in his position. Make Jokić work for the entire summer, or wonder if you’ll ever be able to play both sides of the ball.

Finally, the Denver Nuggets lineup

Unless Porter has a bad game, the Nuggets will close with their starting lineup: Jokić, Murray, Gordon, Porter, and Caldwell-Pope. In addition, this group has played the most minutes in the fourth quarter of any NBA lineup, outscoring the opposition by 6.1 points per 100 possessions during that time.

Denver is the team in the league that executes the best in key possessions, even though that may not seem like a landslide. Jokić finds Murray on a handoff, Gordon for a lob, Porter on a flare, or Caldwell-Pope in the corner. It’s literally death by a thousand cuts. Jokić can also simply push his way into a position and find a decent opportunity.

It’s always kind of the fourth quarter, the last six minutes or the last few minutes of the game, as James succinctly put it earlier in the season. It can be annoying when they create plays when we don’t.

Los Angeles Lakers lineup

With James, Davis, Reaves, Russell, and Hachimura in the starting lineup, the Lakers will most likely respond. With games decided by five points in the last five minutes, that lineup has been extremely successful, going 24-9 in clutch situations and outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per 100 possessions in the fourth quarter. Even if the sample sizes are smaller, those numbers are actually better than Denver’s starters.

The success of the endeavor also has a valid explanation. After all, they boast a deadly pick-and-roll duo in James and Davis. James, who is 39 years old, has built a career out of forcing his way through the paint. He will do it repeatedly, in solitude, off a Davis screen, or one after the other. Therefore, it shouldn’t be shocking that the Lakers make more free throws in crunch time than any other team.

If the Lakers need more defense and versatility, keep an eye on Prince and Vincent as well. Vincent has a history of stepping up big for the Miami Heat, while Russell has a habit of going crazy, even if he was fantastic in the Lakers’ play-in tournament victory. Prince, who has ten years of experience, also seldom makes mistakes. However, if Ham is adjusting his rotation, things in Los Angeles are not looking good.

Forecast

Five nuggets. Have you been perusing literature? In the last three seasons, including the playoffs, the Nuggets had an 11-3 record against the Lakers. One of those losses came on the penultimate day of the 2021–2022 regular season, when Denver’s starting lineup included Bryn Forbes, Bones Hyland, Austin Rivers, Jeff Green, and DeMarcus Cousins. It’s generous of you to give the Lakers a game; James and Davis deserve it as they should start looking for that third star right away.