The Sacramento Kings in particular were the team that eliminated the Golden State Warriors from the 2024 postseason, which makes some sense. During the most of their ten-year reign, the Kings served as Golden State’s welcome mat. 

Against their northern neighbors, the Warriors had a 23-7 record from the 2014–15 season until the 2021–22 campaign. During that time, the Kings never made it to the playoffs. When they did, at last, a season ago, they forced the Warriors to the very edge of a seven-game battle. Golden State almost made it through. They weren’t as fortunate this time around in the Play-In Tournament.

The NBA is a fast-paced sport. Dynasties seldom last as long as you would like, and when they do, their demise is sometimes crueler and quicker than you could have imagined. Even the inferior Kings were able to catch up to the Warriors because of their longevity. 

Now that their cycle of competition is coming to an end, the Warriors dynasty is genuinely in danger of falling apart for the first time in its history—not because they won’t compete in the future, but rather because the holy trinity of superstars who made it possible might finally split.

This offseason, Klay Thompson is expected to become a free agent. Throughout the majority of Golden State’s dominance in the NBA, it appeared unfeasible that a Splash Brother would ever say farewell. However, circumstances have evolved. Thompson is not as famous as he once was. 

For the first time since 2014, he failed to score in the season-ending defeat on Tuesday and only managed an average of under 20 points per game. He wasn’t even a starter for a spell of the season earlier on. It was rookie Brandin Podziemski who he lost that slot to, but he later reclaimed it. Last summer, Thompson was reportedly extended a two-year contract worth $48 million by Golden State. 

With Podziemski in the wings to take his place, it’s difficult to see them rising any higher. Thompson has stated that if it means sticking with Golden State, he’s willing to take on a lower role. Smaller roles and smaller deals are not always synonymous.

In his present form, Thompson definitely won’t command another max contract, but the market is cracking right now to give him a sizable sum of money. Grayson Allen recently signed a four-year contract worth $70 million in Phoenix, creating a market for shooters making between $20 million and $30 million annually. 

Additionally, Thompson has less competition in free agency now that Allen is off the market. Malik Monk’s wounds might have the same effect. It seems possible that he will use his Early Bird Rights to re-sign in Sacramento if he doesn’t put up another great playoff showing.

Right now, seven teams are considering using at least $20 million in cap space over the offseason. For the most part, they could shoot. Thompson becomes the obvious target for anyone searching for an offensive shock if Monk does stay put. He has already been connected to the Orlando Magic.

It’s clear that the fit. There are routes to more than $45 million in cap space for the Magic. This season, they were 22nd in offensive and 29th in 3-point attempts, but their No. 3 defense is more than capable of making up for his age-related shortcomings on that end of the court. 

The Magic are going to start their first postseason campaign in this new era. To go from being a playoff club to a true contender, they will need experience. Thompson provides an abundance of it.

When Fred VanVleet signed a two-year max contract with the Houston Rockets last offseason, he essentially established the standard for this type of free-agency pursuit. 

The Rockets were able to obtain the temporary assistance they required without taking on any long-term risks thanks to that deal, which essentially positioned VanVleet as a bridge point guard until Amen Thompson, ideally, was prepared to take his place. 

Orlando might be considering a similar course because they have a ton of young guards in the pipeline and the trade assets to add more later. 

While the Magic wouldn’t pay Klay the maximum, they would be able to offer a shorter deal at a higher immediate cap number, which would make Golden State’s matchup all the more difficult.

According to Spotrac, the Warriors’ projected luxury tax bills alone over the previous four seasons have come to close to $628 million. That strategy is unsustainable, regardless of how much money Golden State’s opulent new arena brings in. Owner Joe Lacob has publicly stated that he would love to completely avoid the luxury tax for the upcoming season.

Is that even possible? Okay, so maybe not in a sustainable way. For the upcoming season, the anticipated tax line is $172 million. The Warriors have only committed to $134 million in payroll for the upcoming campaign as of right now. That only includes eight players, though, not counting Chris Paul, Kevon Looney, Gui Santos, and Thompson, who will soon become a free agent and whose contract is subject to change. 

The Warriors could theoretically add more players while holding onto Thompson and maybe Paul and keeping below the line, but it’s difficult to see them making much progress in that regard.

More significantly, this offseason marks the eligibility for extensions for Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga. Just Kuminga’s extension is probably going to send Golden State’s payroll skyrocketing once more. That may make it impossible to assure Thompson any long-term financial gain. 

Given that both players will command hefty wages in 2025–2026 and that Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Andrew Wiggins have contracts that expire, the Warriors will find themselves back in repeater tax trouble. It will be difficult to find a trade partner for Wiggins following his recent season or for Green considering his disciplinary problems.

It’s all just money in the end. Plenty of it is with Joe Lacob. The Chase Center helps the Warriors make a lot of money. They could definitely find a way to pay Thompson whatever it takes to get him back. For a team that recently placed tenth in the Western Conference, would it be worth it?

Steve Kerr, the head coach, was a member of the Chicago dynasty. The person who will probably bring down the Warriors was the one who saw it end after the 1998 title. In 2005, during the end of Chicago’s dynasty, Kerr was interviewed for ESPN Classic’s Top 5 Reasons You Can’t Blame. 

“I think ultimately the reason the Bulls were broken apart was that everyone’s contract ended in 1998,” Kerr said. “I think it was unrealistic to expect the team to all of a sudden just say, ‘sure, we’ll put together a $100 million payroll and try to win one more championship.'”

If Golden State were to win one more title, such a salary (of course adjusted for inflation) could be a risk worth taking. There simply don’t seem to be any more titles in this group to be taken out. It’s possible that the reality of the dynasty ending will finally sink in now that even the Kings have outgrown the Warriors. Thompson may have just finished his final game as a Warrior, but either way, this historic streak is about to come to an end.