The Nuggets will remember how this ended for a lot longer than just one offseason.

One of the more agonizing “what-if” scenarios in Denver sports history will live on in memory. It will never be known if the Nuggets would have won the championship again.

One dramatic setback can easily be confused with the entire body of work. When analyzing a Game 7 with as much riding on it as Denver’s defeat to Minnesota last week, there is a tendency for the media and fans to label the issue as something that was inevitable throughout the entire season. That is, at most, a one-dimensional approach to finding the solutions. It verges on being lazy at worst.

However, even head coach Michael Malone identified a recurring thread in the Nuggets’ 20-point collapse that explains a variety of their team- and player-specific symptoms as he looked back on the 2023–24 campaign this week.

In the second half of the game that decided the season, the reigning champions ran out of gasoline.

When questioned on Thursday about how much he played his starters toward the end of the regular season, Malone replied, “On the one hand, we got the 2 seed.” However, as I saw our players in Game 7 during the second half, they appeared quite worn out. You guys most likely observed the same thing, in my opinion. Did I really run our players to the ground then? I have no doubt that’s a contributing factor.

More than any other five-man lineup in the previous six NBA seasons, the Nuggets starting lineup of Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope played 958 minutes together during the regular season. The (much younger) Oklahoma City starting lineup, which concluded the regular season 159 minutes behind Denver’s, was the closest five-man lineup in 2023–2024. In 2023, the Thunder missed the playoffs, while the Nuggets played for two more months.

Those minutes were viewed going into the playoffs as evidence that one of Denver’s key championship characteristics is durability. The same minutes appear as miles in retrospect.

“Coaching, I want to leave Joker out there for 48 minutes because he’s one of the best players in the league, right?” Calvin Booth, general manager, stated while chuckling.

The problem stems from a crucial juncture when front-office philosophy and daily coaching collide. Booth’s plan for circumventing the strict new collective bargaining agreement necessitates dedication to in-house depth. After winning the title, he selected three players last summer and two more in the first round of the 2022 selection. Two more picks are in his possession for the forthcoming draft.

It will be challenging to assess roster needs prior to that time, though, given the majority of the 2023 selections were restricted to the G League as rookies. The season began with No. 27 choice Julian Strawther playing in a fair number of NBA games; however, he was removed from the rotation in February following his recovery from a right knee injury. During his press conference at the end of the season, Malone disclosed that the injury he had suffered in early January was an MCL sprain.

The start of Denver’s “home stretch” appears to be marked by Strawther’s injury, rather than the race for Western Conference seeding following the All-Star break. With 45 games left, Malone stated on January 6 that “losing teams pace themselves.”

Strawther, Jalen Pickett, and Hunter Tyson combined for 148 minutes of play in the next 45 games. Of those total minutes, only 32.2 (all Strawther’s) came before the fourth quarter, or, more accurately, before trash time. In those 45 games, the trio of draft picks combined for 61 points.

Denver’s starting lineup, along with Reggie Jackson, Christian Braun, and Peyton Watson, rested 19 games in those 45 games (nine of their absences were due to Murray’s injury.) The eight players in that rotation accounted for 87.2% of the minutes played by the club overall. Furthermore, compared to most teams during the regular season, the Nuggets’ substitution patterns entailed less shifting between units. In order to maximize their impact, end-of-bench reinforcements typically shared the court with one another rather than with starters when they came into play.

Over the course of the three months, Jokic, Murray, and Porter accounted for 52.4% of Denver’s total points scored. What happens if there is a jam in two of the three cogs? An exit in the second round.

“There are times when I have to look up from the bunker and ask myself, ‘Well, how do we win this season?’ It’s not just about winning the next game.” Malone acknowledged on Thursday. And to ensure that we give ourselves the best chance of making the playoffs, we’ll have to consider all factors, including resting players a little more and reducing their workload, minutes, and games played.

Athletes tend to avoid talking about fatigue, but when it contributes to a team’s collapse, it’s sufficient to shift the blame in different places. Certainly part of the reason was Malone’s unwavering will to win each and every game in order to secure a spot in the standings that didn’t really matter. However, the initial design of Denver’s bench was also a contentious issue during the season, especially after Bruce Brown left for Toronto. Jackson was signed by Booth to fill in on occasion, but after December, Jackson’s output declined. Jokic never have a trustworthy backup center.

Then there was Murray, whose postseason effectiveness suffered the most from the regular season. Malone and Booth both hypothesized that conditioning may have played a role.

“We all need to examine our strengths and weaknesses and study.” Perhaps take a peek at previous events. Do you attempt to prepare by observing what previous exceptional players and guards have done following a championship win? stated Booth. “I believe it takes some research to figure out what it takes to finish a season after playing through June. Jamal is an entirely other animal if he is in good physical form. He clearly became a touch less effective at the end of the playoffs.

In the first 26 minutes of Game 7, Murray scored 29 points, and in the final 22 minutes, he scored just six. Jokic contributed to the team’s minus-13 rebounding disparity with 15 rebounds in the first half and 4 in the second. Porter didn’t always seem to be there. The Nuggets were caught off guard by a championship run just when it was most convenient. Whatever the case